Looking abroad for talent as Estonia’s population shrinks

When Kristi Veskus, Head of the Work in Estonia programme, flew 11,000 kilometers to Brazil for a tech conference, she was asked, “What does your company, Estonia, do?” It wasn't until she pointed to a small corner of the European Union, on a map, that people realised Estonia is a country. "They were genuinely surprised," she recalled.

That exchange took place in 2019, just before the world got flipped upside down by the coronavirus. Despite the challenges faced since then, Estonia’s startup ecosystem has continued to grow, and long gone are the days of boasting about Skype, as the unicorn has gone from a mythical creature to a common sight. 

But, while the tech scene grew, something else in the background shrank, something no app or automation can fix. Estonia is running out of people. 

Estonia’s population is shrinking, with births no longer outpacing deaths. The total population fell from 1.38 million in 2024 to 1.36 million in 2025. World Bank Group forecasts predict it could fall further, possibly reaching 1.33 million by 2030. 

For years, immigration cushioned the population decline. But, according to the World Bank Group, net migration has been negative for two consecutive years, falling by 7,742 in 2024 and a further 13,350 in 2025. 

Immigration numbers briefly spiked in 2022 to 39,754, but as Liis Valdsalu, Head of Global Mobility at Bolt, commented, “If you look at the statistics, most people moving to Estonia were Russians and Ukrainians. That changed significantly after the war started, which is why the overall numbers are lower.”

Companies and organisations are trying to navigate the population decline. For example, Veskus's job is to support startups by providing guidance on finding international talent and helping those going through the immigration process. Or there’s Valdsalu, who proactively supports talent through the immigration process as they onboard at Bolt.  

Against the trends  

“We've been actively relocating people for seven-plus years, more intensively since around 2019 and 2020, and so far have helped 800+ people from 75+ nationalities,” Valdsalu explained. “We decided to go against the remote work trend and keep relocating, mostly bringing in mid-level and senior roles to Estonia, because those are positions that are missing from the local market.” 

Veskus has a similar mission. "Work in Estonia is part of the Estonian Business and Innovation Agency," she explained. "Our main goal is to do what the private sector can't. That is to put Estonia on the global map and attract international talent." 

Both organisations support talent through the entire immigration process. Veskus points to the International House of Estonia, a physical location in Tallinn where public sector partners work together. 

“The Police and Border Guard have a representative on-site, so people can handle migration-related documents and start their journey with us," says Veskus. "We also offer address registration in partnership with the City of Tallinn and other public sector services. The idea is that the first three months, typically the most stressful, is to make them feel supported.” 

In the case of Bolt, Valdsalu helps those relocating by taking an active role in navigating the immigration red tape. “We help with visa bookings, prepare residence permits and visa documents, and go to the Police and Border Guard with them to make sure everything is submitted correctly and on time. The goal is for them to spend more time focused on onboarding and less on the logistics of relocating.” 

From two months to nine months      

For Veskus, the challenge she faces today is the one she faced back in 2019. Explaining to people that Estonia exists.

“The biggest challenge is visibility and scale,” Veskus said. “Estonia simply doesn't have the name recognition of Germany, Sweden, or the U.S.” 

Valdsalu identified that the time required to complete the immigration process is the largest barrier for immigrants, especially those with families coming from non-EU countries. “When I started at Bolt, five and a half years ago, getting a visa took about a month,” Valdsalu clarified. “The Ukraine war has had a big effect, as the country has made legal changes to ensure more detailed background checks, which, of course, affects timelines.”  

Another issue Valdsalu highlighted is that, despite many countries and businesses marvelling at Estonia’s digital innovations, its immigration process still largely requires a sea of paper and BIC pens. “The processing time used to be two months, but this year it's three months because many things on the government side in Estonia still happen on paper or involve a lot of manual work,” Valdsalu explained. “Obviously, from the perspective of a company that genuinely needs that talent, it's never good news.” 

Valdsalu also explained that when you include applying for a visa, scheduling an appointment with the Police and Border Guard Board, processing, and card printing, the entire timeline for settling into the country could take up to nine months. 

“Estonia still uses an immigration quota, which has been a hot topic for years because the quota is quite small,” Valdsalu added. “It opens every year in January, and you can imagine how quickly all the available appointments get booked. This affects us even though we mostly bring in people classified as top specialists, who don't fall under the quota. We often can't get appointments in January, and if we can get anything in February, that's already good.” 

The Ministry of the Interior is aware of the bottlenecks that people like Valdsalu face when recruiting international talent and is currently working on various initiatives to address the ever-increasing timelines. In October 2025, it introduced fast-track entry for top specialists from strategic partner countries.

Amendments to the Aliens Act are currently under debate in Parliament, to create a pathway for skilled workers in labour-critical sectors with no quota, no labour market test, and a lower salary threshold of 80% of the average Estonian wage. 

The Ministry of the Interior is developing a single-window digital solution, scheduled to launch in 2026, that allows migrants and employers to communicate with state authorities through a single channel. 

For those of you starting a company, with ambitions to become the next unicorn to join the herd, on January 1, 2026, a law came into effect, stating that employers looking to obtain a TRP for international talent will need to show evidence of economic activity for six consecutive months before they can apply.

Quality of life  

Despite Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Estonia's proximity to its neighbour to the east, both Veskus and Valdsalu noted that this isn’t a dealbreaker for those relocating to Estonia. Veskus explained, “When the war broke out, it was a shock, and we did see some expats leave. But today, awareness of the situation doesn't seem to have a significant effect on people's decisions to relocate here.”

She reflected on interviews they held in London last spring, exploring how top talent there perceives Estonia as a career destination, “When asked about negatives, a couple of people said they had to look at a map first, and once they did, they noticed the neighbour. But the general attitude was: you can't choose your neighbours when you're a country.” 

Valdsalu made similar comments, “In 2022 and 2023, people were more worried than they are now. It's sad to say, but it's becoming part of a new normal.” 

Nowadays, with social media algorithms serving up the latest awful news in the hopes of stealing attention, it’s only natural to try to find peace and quiet somewhere. Understandably, most people's concerns before relocating centre on the quality of life Estonia can offer them and their families. 

“Over the past two years, we've seen a clear shift in what people are looking for beyond salary and cost of living,” Veskus said, “The questions are: How safe is the country? How good is the education system, and how accessible is it? What medical care is available, and how is it funded? Is this a good place to build a career? Is it a good place to raise children?” 

Valdsalu emphasised the importance of transparency when having these conversations, “You can't oversell the country. Saying Estonia is amazing, full of opportunities, and super cheap — that's no longer accurate. It's better to be straightforward: the cost of living has changed, eating out can be expensive, and here's what to expect.”

A long-overdue conversation 

Six years later, Veskus is still explaining to people where Estonia is, and making a case for why they should come here.

“Estonia's population is declining and aging,” Veskus pointed out, “at the same time, businesses want to grow, and for that they need talent. That's fundamentally why attracting international talent matters.” 

But a report published by ERR shared survey data showing that 53% of respondents across all political parties oppose bringing in workers from the EU, while 71% oppose labour migration from outside the EU. 

As Veskus tries to bring more people to Estonia, the country continues to lose more people than it gains, with the national conversation questioning whether people even need to be replaced. For finding solutions to this problem, more conversations around immigration will help, with Valdsalu adding, “migration overall isn't a hot topic in Estonia yet. But it really should be.”