> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://fomo.observer/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # TRIIN HERTMANN: Impact investing stopped selling guilt. That might be the best thing that happened to it - URL: https://fomo.observer/triin-hertmann-impact-investing-stopped-selling-guilt-that-might-be-the-best-thing-that-happened-to-it/ - Published: 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-23T13:57:18.000Z - Author: Triin Hertmann - Tags: Dispatches, Investors, Impact investing, Norrsken, Triin Hertmann I came back from Norrsken Impact Week in Barcelona with a few thoughts that sit uncomfortably next to each other. Impact investing is growing up and becoming more commercial, which I like. And AI is moving faster than anyone’s ability to check it, which makes me anxious. [Norrsken](https://www.norrsken.vc/?ref=fomo.observer) is always digging deeper in their events and that’s why I love joining in their discussions. ### Where the impact investing market stands today Let’s start with the size and snapshot. The GIIN estimates the global impact investing market at $1.6 trillion, up more than $400 billion since 2022 and growing 21% a year since 2019\. Surprising, right? Looking around, it looks like the people have forgotten that we only have one planet to live on and are burning it like there is no tomorrow. The money comes from big, boring places: pension and insurance funds and investors in developed markets manage 95% of it. So this is not a niche for idealists, really. It is mostly institutional money in Europe and North America. Impact investing market has grown by more than $400bn since 2022\. But at the same time, the mood is sour. Morningstar counted about $55 billion of net outflows from global sustainable funds in Q3 2025 and about $27 billion in Q4\. In the first quarter of 2025, an estimated 335 European funds rebranded, and 116 of them dropped ESG-related terms from their names. My reading is that ESG as a marketing sticker is tired. But drive for energy, grids and physical-world technology is not. The venture numbers point the same way. Climate tech VC reached $26.1 billion in the first half of 2026, up 55% on last year and the strongest first half since 2022, although data-center technologies made up 34% of it, against 3% a year earlier. The direction is the same: money is coming back, it is concentrated, and AI’s hunger for power is a big reason why. ### What Norrsken is betting on Being one of the hottest impact investors in Nordics, I am always keen on hearing their ideas about the market. This time one line really stuck with me: the green premium is dead, the best products win, and the impact is something that just comes with them. You can see the logic in how they frame the biggest problems: AI’s energy appetite, industrial energy waste and the shortage of healthcare workers are all presented as bottlenecks, and every bottleneck is a market. Nobody asked for a subsidy. One more thing I noticed is the mood about Europe. In Norrsken’s survey of 750 European investors and founders, 51% of investors and 42% of founders said Europe has become a more attractive place to invest or build than it was twelve months ago. I think that surveys of the people already onboard should be read with a grain of salt. Still, a more volatile world seems to be making Europe look more stable by comparison, and that is not something I would have predicted two years ago. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/08/7f/087f88ab-cb17-44cc-928d-9cfca14a3fb9/content/images/2026/10/John-Kerry-1.jpeg) John Kerry's ask-me-anything ### John Kerry: stop selling climate guilt One of the main speakers I was really looking forward to hearing was John Kerry (former United States Secretary of State) who gave us a lovely ask-me-anything session on the rooftop terrace. Being 82 years old, jetlagged and apparently also with a little flu, he seemed 100x sharper and more logical than the US' current head of state. It felt that he is deeply concerned about how the biggest democracy in the world is currently behaving and treating their allies. But he asked us to just be patient and smart and eventually there will be better days. His message to the room was to stop selling climate guilt and start selling returns. The strongest climate businesses will win because they save money, not because they save polar bears. Also he called the energy transition potentially the biggest investment opportunity in history, bigger than the Industrial Revolution. Energy independence is also a matter of national security. He said that China understood this years ago and Europe needs to catch up. He also warned that AI really needs international rules of the game. A US-China race without cooperation or guardrails could become dangerous. The part that made me uneasy and several next sessions during the following days only added to that feeling. ### Feels like AI is moving from our computers to our brains In my experience, six to twelve months ago, the typical AI startup pitch was about making company systems and processes easier and tying them to company-wide data. Plainly useful: our everyday work, just better informed and faster. Now I see more and more startups going straight after our brains. AI wearables that record every thought and conversation, that are supposed to make you a better person, take decisions for you and manage your relationships. Self-help, self-development and personal growth are the new categories. I find that scary. Think about an honest business or personal conversation with someone. I would probably remember 10-20% of it the next day and walk on blissfully without remembering every stupid joke and maybe a remark about a third person that was supposed to stay within the room. But apparently the other person’s AI would remember 100% + making some analysis, decisions and proposals based on that. Possible long time personal relationship history will have no meaning. It’s recorded black and white and also analysed through the whole wide world's knowledge of psychology. And to build from there – who eventually owns my inner thoughts and struggles? ### Trust came up everywhere In Norrsken’s survey, both investors and founders named trust and reliability as the biggest barrier to scaling AI. Among startups, 80% believe companies with strong responsible data and AI practices will be more financially successful, and 73% of VCs agree. In the corridors, the same themes came up from other angles: safety layers, AI insurance, and the idea that every agent you let into your company systems is a new way to attack you. One more idea made me smile and wince at once. Maybe your old SaaS company’s biggest asset today is years of customer behavior data, not the software. If so, sell fast. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/08/7f/087f88ab-cb17-44cc-928d-9cfca14a3fb9/content/images/2026/10/Triin-Erikki-Melonie.jpeg) Estonia representing! ### The investor side has its own problems I talked to a bunch of investors about how they evaluate startups now when pitch decks come from Claude and look identical, ARR proof can be really difficult to value, for startups creating any kind of analysis that proves the point (as ordered) is easy, future is so uncertain that it’s hard to predict next month, much less the next years. They mentioned that it is also getting harder to tell whether reported revenue is real. The pressure for speed is so strong, and the temptation to be creative with numbers grows with it. Also there are many AI startups whose revenue is dependent on 1-3 large customers. So the question to ask: is the product itself easily replaceable when the next startup, building even faster, shows up? Investors themselves need to figure out their own competitive advantage. The anxiety is real also in this room. It is reality that the next best deals will only be accessible by the largest, fastest and most aggressive VCs. What is the strategy the rest have to adapt? It is for them to look inside and figure out if it is their field of (narrow) expertise, being super well connected, managing their own accelerators or similar programs or being the capital aggregator via syndicates or having large angels co-investing? ### What now? Barcelona left me with a clearer test for impact: does this business make a real problem cheaper, safer or easier to solve, and can it show who benefits? The language may shift from sustainability and ESG to resilience, energy independence and responsible AI. The labels can change; the need for evidence and trust cannot. I remain optimistic about what founders, technology and capital can achieve together. But as AI moves closer to our most personal decisions, growth alone is not enough. The companies worth backing will build things people choose because they work and earn the trust as well. ## Sign up for Fomo.Observer Startup stories from Estonia. Free weekly newsletter. Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.